Monsoon likely to be ‘normal’ this year, predicts Skymet

New Delhi India’s monsoon, which delivers nearly 70% of the country’s rain and is crucial for its economy, is likely to be “normal” at about 102% of the long period average (LPA), with an error margin of 5%, private weather forecaster Skymet Weather said on Tuesday.
Skymet said at play will be a “swift” switch from El Nino conditions in the Pacific to La Nina, which will likely mean a slow start to the summer rains before the latter weeks bring heavier spells. It also said the distribution of rains is likely to be inequitable for the season.
Read here: Monsoon likely to be ‘normal’ at about 102% of LPA: weather forecaster Skymet
The monsoon officially begins in June and lasts till September. The LPA for the June to September period is 868.6mm, with rainfall between 96-104% of LPA considered normal.
“El Nino is swiftly flipping over to La Nina,” said Skymet managing director Jatin Singh in a statement. “Monsoon circulation inclines to be stronger during La Nina years. The transition from Super El Nino to strong La Nina has historically tended to produce a decent monsoon. However, the monsoon season may start with a risk of impairment, attributable to the remnant effects of El Nino.”

El Nino is characterised by an unusual warming of waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and correlates with warmer summers, drought, and weaker monsoon rains in India. La Nina has the opposite effect.
Skymet said there was a 10% chance of excess rainfall (more than 110% of LPA), 20% of above normal (105-110% of LPA), 45% of normal (96-104% of LPA), 15% of below normal (90-95% of LPA), and 10% of drought (less than 90% of LPA).
Last year, Skymet predicted the monsoon to be in the ‘below normal’ category at 94% of the LPA, which turned out to be accurate.
Skymet Weather said a preliminary forecast of positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) this season will work with La Nina for better monsoon prospects. However, it expects the start of the season to be aberrated due to what it said will be remnants of the El Nino phenomenon.
“Notwithstanding, the start of the season is expected to be aberrated on account of the quick transition from El Nino to La Nina. Also, the rainfall distribution is likely to be diverse”, and not equitable for the season as a whole.
Over the years, the overall monsoon precipitation figures have concealed wide disparities in the rainfall, both in terms of geographic spread and the number of days over which it was spread. Last year, June rains were 9% below average because of the delay in the arrival of rains, but July rains rebounded to 13% above average. August was the driest on record with a 36% deficit, but again in September, rainfall revived and the country received 13% more rainfall than the normal, India’s national weather agency IMD said in October after the season culminated.
The Indian Meteorological Department’s official monsoon forecast is expected around April 15.
Skymetsaid it expects good rains in the South, West, and Northwest regions, with adequate rainfall in the core monsoon rainfed zone of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh. However, eastern states like Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, and West Bengal are at risk of deficit rainfall during July and August, with Northeast India likely to record less than normal rains in June and July.
Consistent and moderate amounts of rain – as opposed to heavy or very heavy rainfall days – are crucial for a country where nearly half of the farmland lacks irrigation. Good rains can help keep prices of staples such as sugar, pulses, rice and vegetables under control, in turn restraining the sticky inflation problem.
IMD said earlier that rainfall during April, averaged over the country, is most likely to be normal (88-112% of LPA). The IMD is expected to make its initial monsoon forecast around mid-April.
The forecast was accompanied with an extreme heat warning for the summer months by the government forecaster. “We can expect extreme temperatures this summer mainly because of the impact of El Nino. Models are also indicating the development of La Niña conditions during the monsoon season which may mean that we will have a good monsoon,” M Mohapatra, director general, IMD said on April 1.
Last year, an El Nino year, monsoon season rainfall over the country was 94% of its LPA. The World Meteorological Organisation said last month that El Nino has peaked as one of the five strongest on record and will continue to impact the global climate for at least half of this year despite a gradual weakening trend.